Results from the NPP flagbearer race shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone: the election was skewed in favour of Bawumia – Prof. Opoku-Antwi

Governance expert and policy analyst, Professor Enoch Opoku-Antwi, has stated that the outcome of the just-ended flagbearer election of the opposition New Patriotic Party (NPP) shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone because the election was skewed in favour of Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia.

According to him, the winner of the election was obvious, given the trajectory adopted from the beginning of the process. ‘This election is like a Ghanaian movie; you can see the end from the beginning,’ he added

The Governance expert and policy analyst, who was speaking in a Zoom interview during the coverage of the NPP’s 2026 presidential primary on TV3 Saturday, January 31, 2026, likened the process to a Ghanaian movie, which he said lacks suspense and surprises.

“But this election is just like a Ghanaian movie. In Ghanaian movies, you can see the end from the beginning. Once it starts, you know how it will end because the storyline is just straight, there are no surprises, there is no suspense, and that’s exactly what is going to happen here. We know who is going to win and we know who is going to lose.

Technically, it’s clear that Dr. Bawumia will win because the whole process has been tilted in favour of him. If you look at the top-down approach, the way it started, the moment you talk about the top-down approach, it will have a ripple effect because it is starting from the top instead of starting from the grassroots,” he explained.

Prof. Opoku-Antwi explained that the top-down approach employed by the party leadership favours the former Vice President and the party’s 2024 presidential candidate, Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, making him the likely candidate to emerge victorious after the polls.

According to him, the entire process has been skewed in favour of the party’s 2024 presidential candidate, indicating the arrangement positions Dr. Bawumia as the frontrunner to lead the party in 2028.

In his explanation of the ramifications of the top-down approach, he said it is going to impact the subsequent elections that are going to follow in the party.

“We’ve been talking about the top-down approach and its ripple effect. Because after this election, that’s not the end. There are going to be other ripple effects of who you voted for, who you campaigned for, and that’s going to affect the grassroots level, who will win, the constituency level, the regional level, and the national level.

This is because the top candidate has been elected already, and it’s going to have a big ripple effect,” he reiterated

A total of 211,849 delegates were expected to take part in the NPP’s presidential primary today, Saturday, January 31, 2026, according to official data from the NPP.

The delegates are drawn from the party’s 16 regions, the national headquarters, and the diaspora, following adjustments for deceased members and forfeitures.

Originally, 213,617 delegates were on the register, but 2,827 deaths and 653 forfeitures have reduced the final voting strength.

According to the data, the Greater Accra Region has emerged as the single largest voting bloc, with 40,162 delegates, representing approximately 19 per cent of the total electorate.

Closely behind is the Ashanti Region, traditionally the party’s strongest base, contributing 36,620 delegates, or about 17 per cent.

The Greater Accra and Ashanti regions together account for over one‑third of all delegates, making them decisive battlegrounds for all flagbearer hopefuls.

Also, the Eastern region, often described as a political bellwether within the NPP, contributes 21,598 delegates, representing about 10 per cent of the total.

This places it third on the list and firmly positions it as a region candidates cannot afford to overlook.

The Central Region follows with 18,398 delegates (9 per cent), while the Western Region accounts for 14,122 delegates (7 per cent).

Together, these three regions add more than 54,000 votes, reinforcing their strategic importance in a tightly contested primary.

Meanwhile, in the Volta enclave, where the NPP has been working to expand its support base, 12,574 delegates (6 per cent) were expected to vote.

The Northern region contributes 12,183 delegates (6 per cent), highlighting its growing influence within the party’s internal elections.

The Bono, Bono East, and Upper East regions each provide between 7,800 and 8,600 delegates, accounting for roughly 4 per cent apiece.

The Upper West and Western North regions contribute 6,875 and 6,429 delegates respectively, each representing about 3 per cent of the total vote.

Smaller regions and special voting centres

Among the smaller voting blocs, the Oti region will field 5,495 delegates, while the Ahafo region contributes 4,338 delegates.

The Savanna region has 4,148 delegates, and the North East region records 3,651 delegates, each accounting for about 2 per cent of the national delegate pool.

In addition, the NPP National Headquarters will have 153 delegates, while the Diaspora chapter contributes 824 delegates, reflecting the party’s growing international footprint, though together they make up less than one per cent of the total vote.

Deaths and forfeitures

The regional statistics also reveal the scale of attrition within the delegate list.

The Ashanti region recorded the highest number of deceased delegates (562), followed by Eastern (433) and Central (251).

The Central region also recorded a notably high number of forfeitures (320), with Eastern (245) and Northern (23) also affected.

With more than 211,000 delegates voting nationwide, today’s primary is expected to be one of the largest internal elections in the party’s history.

By: Franklin ASARE-DONKOH